Friday, October 24, 2014
The Emergent Patterns of Climate Change
Source: TED Talks
Speaker: Gavin Schmidt
Date of Talk: March 2014
Date Published: May 1, 2014
Link: http://www.ted.com/talks/gavin_schmidt_the_emergent_patterns_of_climate_change?language=en
Summary: In this talk, Gavin Schmidt explains that one can't understand climate change in pieces; it's the whole or nothing. In order to do this, he pieces together small "puzzle pieces" of the biosphere – the condition of polar ice caps, the condition of the air, etc. For each piece, he puts together equations that help people understand what could affect it. After piecing all of the equations of all of the parts together, he is able to make a model showing the air and water movements of the earth. Those movements are a result of the small-scale interactions. Schmidt explains that this is a skillful model not because it's right, because models are often wrong since they are merely approximations. The model is a skillful model because it tells more information than one would have had otherwise. Therefore, he can use this model to find out what could happen if humans were to "kick the system", and shows that by the end of the 21st century, Earth will have become significantly warmer if we do not do anything. Schmidt ends saying, "The models are skillful, but what we do with the information from those models is totally up to you." We must use this model to make better changes of our environment.
Connection: This talk connects to our work during class in this semester because it shows how the different levels of organization affect each other. For example, small changes in a climate can eventually cause much larger changes in the biosphere, affecting all of the climates, not just the original one. He also mentions different "kicks" in the system, such as more greenhouse gases. In class, we talked about how one of the main greenhouse gases is carbon dioxide. Therefore, this kick would disrupt the carbon cycle. Finally, this is an example of hypothetical science. Based on observations, Schmidt puts together equations to create a large model of the earth in order to predict future events. After observing, he and his team will probably improve the model in order to make it more accurate, allowing it to be used for predicting even more future events.
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What would some of the steps that the world must take as a whole in order to get to this "aggressive mitigation" stage?
ReplyDeleteSchmidt says that the models tell us that most of the warming during the 20th century is caused by the amount of carbon dioxide we put into the atmosphere. Therefore, the world as a whole must decrease these emissions. The United States Environmental Protection Agency states that fossil fuels cause the greatest emission, and that the top three sources that use fossil fuels are electricity, transportation, and industry. Thus, the world should seek alternative energy sources, and the more global participation, the faster we can achieve the "aggressive mitigation" stage. (The link to the USEPA website is here: http://1.usa.gov/1kjGFkG)
DeleteYou mentioned that he used "equations" in his model. How do the equations relate to what he is doing? Are there certain formulas he is using?
ReplyDeleteIn order to create the model, they must enter in the information as lines of code. Since the biosphere is extremely complex, they must do it one piece at a time, therefore they use those equations. The equations relate to the small, measurable interactions and changes in that area. For example, if they were studying the ice of the Arctic, they would use equations regarding the shape of the ice, the fluxes, the rate at which snow turns into ice, etc. If you watch the video, at around 3:06 Schmidt explains in more detail.
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